Prediction Obama 311-227 McCain

Wednesday, August 27th, 2008

I watched Hillary’s speech to the DNC on C-Span (via BBC Parliament) and I very nearly applied for citizenship there and then. Blimey she was good. And I got the feeling a lot of people in the crowd were thinking “what have we done?”.
Too late, Hillary, too late. But Michelle Obama was good too – you get the sense she won’t be the sort of First Lady who sits quietly and smiles on the official Christmas card.

Based on my extensive knowledge of US politics (I watched every season of West Wing at least twice and saw every episode of Commander in Chief before it was cancelled) here’s my prediction.

2008 electoral vote map - Los Angeles Times-1.jpg

Mind you I got the last one wrong – I still remember sitting there with my pack of American Hard Gums waiting for the results to come in, and giving up in the early hours after Kerry’s spokespeople started looking glum.

My rationale this time round is any state with a coast will likely go Democrat because there has to be a link between passport ownership and common sense; if the margin in the last election was within about 3% it will go Democrat; Florida and Ohio will not make the same mistake as last time. (Although I’m not sure about Alaska – both the people who live there tend to vote Republican if memory serves, but the latest poll had them down for Obama. But the whole Russia/Georgia thing might make them nervous enough to vote Republican) [Addendum – Sarah Palin makes it certain, I think. Alaska’s going Republican]

I thought about giving any state where a candidate lives to that candidate, on the basis of home advantage, but given the current uncertainty over the number of homes McCain possesses (he can’t remember how many he has, apparently) that might result in a clean sweep for the Republicans.

Having said all this, I’m just guessing. But then so are all the people on the US news channels. All I’ll say is this: when McCain lambasts Obama for being loved by the rest of the world, just remember that when electing the self-proclaimed “leader of the free world” it’s polite to consider who the rest of us think that should be.

Pollster.com currently puts Obama 10 EVs away from the winning post. It would be sweet if the national vote is close but the electoral vote gives it so clearly to Obama.

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One comment on “Prediction Obama 311-227 McCain

  1. High Desert Wanderer says:

    I’d agree that proximity to a coast correlates with common sense, but I’d suggest that it went the other way. I’ve lived on both coasts and common sense isn’t something I’d associate with any coastal state I’ve lived in.

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